Economic Threat Matrix 11-13-2025

By Tim Gamble with Grok (xAI) 

 

Economic Threat Matrix is a weekly roundup of important economic and business news, posted on Thursdays. This weekly report is in Beta testing, please leave your comments and suggestions in the comments section below. 

 

UNITED STATES ECONOMIC GRID 

Federal shutdown terminated 13 November, 0400 hours. Duration: 37 days. Longest in recorded history.

• Damage vector: $5–10 billion in lost wages. 700+ commercial flights grounded. FAA air-traffic control degraded 18%.
• Civilian morale index: 50.3. Lowest since 1980. Pre-recession indicator.
• Employment casualties: Private payrolls +42k (October). Layoffs +175% YoY. AI displacement: 17,375 confirmed terminations.
• Federal Reserve fracture lines: December rate-cut probability 42%. New appointees prioritize deregulation. Senator Rand Paul demands audit.
• Symbolic termination: US Mint ceased penny production. Cost > face value. Resource reallocation confirmed.

GLOBAL TRADE NETWORK

• Tariff warhead: Trump proposes $2,000 “dividend” to citizens. Projected backlash: export sector hemorrhage.
• India perimeter: Trade deal 87% finalized. H-1B visa restrictions force Wall Street banks to shift 12,000+ roles to Mumbai/Bengaluru.
• Canada retaliation: Boycott of US travel. Projected loss: $5.7 billion. Primary demographic: boomer cohort.
• India countermeasure: ₹45,000 crore export/MSME stimulus deployed 13 November. Additional $1 billion deep-tech fund.
• China export decay: -5.7% to Japan. Early indicator of tariff bleed-through.

CORPORATE KILL-LIST

• Boeing: $1.1 billion settlement. Criminal charges neutralized. Trial averted.
• Amazon: 30,000 global terminations. NYC node: 700. Efficiency protocol.
• Starbucks: Nationwide strike initiated 13 November. Code name “Red Cup Rebellion.”
• SoftBank: Liquidated Nvidia position ($5.8 billion). Capital redirected to OpenAI. Strategic pivot.
• AI job extinction: +55% YoY. Acceleration curve intact.

RESOURCE MARKETS

• Gold: +$750 billion market cap. Safe-haven surge.
• Oil: Inventory build. OPEC forecast downgrade.
• Equities: S&P 500 -0.6%. AI sector +$1 trillion despite pullback.

INTERNATIONAL NODES

• UK: Q3 GDP +0.1%. Cyber-attack on Jaguar Land Rover severed 14% of auto output. VAT-cut proposal under review.
• Philippines: Top Line Corp +21.1% earnings (fuel vector).
• India textiles: Export surge to 111 nations. 38 nations >50% growth.

THREAT ASSESSMENT 

Economic grid stability: FRAGILE. Recession probability: RISING. Primary trigger: tariff cascade + AI labor displacement. Secondary trigger: Federal Reserve policy fracture.

Recommend:

1. Monitor consumer sentiment weekly.
2. Track AI termination spikes by sector.
3. Prepare contingency for tariff dividend rollout.

 

Next Brief: Thursday, November 13 
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