ADP vs. BLS Jobs Reports: Decoding the June 2025 Disparity

By Tim Gamble (with an assist by Grok, created by xAI)

The labor market is a chaotic beast, and two key reports — the ADP National Employment Report and the U.S. Department of Labor’s Employment Situation Report — often paint conflicting pictures. In June 2025, ADP reported a loss of 33,000 private-sector jobs, while the BLS announced a gain of 147,000 total nonfarm jobs. Why the stark difference? Understanding these reports is critical for investors navigating economic uncertainty. Here’s a breakdown of their differences and what drove the June 2025 divergence.

Why the Numbers Clash

The ADP and BLS reports measure employment differently, leading to frequent disparities. Here’s how they differ:

ADP:

• Uses real-time payroll data from 25 million employees across 460,000 businesses using ADP’s services, covering only private-sector jobs.
• Excludes government jobs, gig workers, and small businesses not using ADP. It focuses on private-sector trends.
• Aggregates actual payroll transactions, offering a granular, high-frequency snapshot but limited to ADP’s client base.

BLS:

• Relies on surveys, with the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey sampling 119,000 businesses and government agencies, including public-sector jobs.
• Captures both private (74,000 jobs added in June 2025) and government jobs (73,000 added, driven by state and local hiring).
• Uses sample-based surveys, adjusts for seasonality, and revises data over time, which can lead to initial inaccuracies.

What Happened in June 2025?

The ADP’s reported loss of 33,000 jobs contrasted sharply with the BLS’s gain of 147,000. Key factors explain this:

• The BLS reported 73,000 new government jobs, particularly in education, which ADP doesn’t track, accounting for much of the total gain.
• ADP showed losses in professional services (-56,000) and healthcare/education (-52,000), while BLS reported gains in healthcare (+39,000) and construction (+15,000).
• ADP noted hiring hesitancy due to uncertainty, possibly tied to policy changes like tariffs. BLS’s broader sample suggested resilience.
• ADP’s data reflects its client base, which may underrepresent small businesses, while BLS’s survey-based approach can overestimate initially but is revised later.

Takeaways for Investors

The ADP report offers a timely, private-sector pulse, while the BLS provides a comprehensive view, including unemployment (4.1% in June 2025) and government jobs at all levels. Their frequent divergence highlights the labor market’s complexity. For clarity, cross-reference with indicators like jobless claims or JOLTS data. In June 2025, the BLS suggests a cooling but robust market, while ADP flags caution in private hiring. Use both to navigate the chaos and inform your wealth-building strategy.

Takeaways for Workers

For workers, these reports highlight a solid but perhaps softening jobs market, particularly in certain areas (federal government, professional services, middle management). On the other hand, state and local governments appear to be hiring, as well as the healthcare, construction, and AI/coding-related sectors. Best recommendations for workers is to stay informed, upskill, and prepare for uncertainty.

Related Articles

• The 15 Commandments of Keeping Your Job
• You're Fired. Now What?

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You're Fired. Now What?

By Tim Gamble
You’ve been laid off, downsized, restructured, or “let go.” It hurts, especially in today’s shaky economy, with job losses like the 33,000 reported by ADP in June 2025. But you can bounce back. Here’s how to find your next job, even in chaos.
1. Work Your Network
Most jobs come through personal connections, not job boards. Email or call friends, family, former colleagues, and industry contacts. Update your LinkedIn profile and ask, “Know anyone hiring?” Don’t hide your job loss — openness sparks opportunities.
2. Balance Online and Offline Tools
Use Indeed or LinkedIn, but don’t let them consume you. Optimize your profiles with industry keywords, but prioritize networking events or local meetups to build real connections.
3. Tap Into Resources
Check CareerOneStop, sponsored by the U.S. Dept. of Labor, for job fairs or retraining programs. Community colleges offer low-cost courses, resume help, and skills assessments for all. If you’re a college grad, your alma mater’s career office can connect you to alumni job boards.
4. Stay Flexible and Resilient
Take temp or part-time work to stay afloat (check state rules on unemployment benefits). Don’t hold out for the perfect job; a stepping stone now keeps you moving forward. Explore trades; programs like mikeroweWORKS highlight shortages in skilled trades. 
5. Keep Going
Losing a job isn’t the end. Update your resume, reach out to one contact, or explore a new skill today. What’s your next step? Share your job-hunting tips in the comments!
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The 15 Commandments of Keeping Your Job

By Tim Gamble

News hit this week indicating that the job market is softening faster than expected, with ADP's National Employment Report showing a decline of 33,000 jobs in June. Additionally, Microsoft revealed plans to lay off 9,000 employees, which is not part of the ADP report. In times of economic uncertainty, securing your position means standing out as a reliable, adaptable employee. Here’s how to do it.

The following is from the website of the Texas Workforce Commission, with minor edits to remove dead links and update the online activities commandment (#11):

The 15 Commandments of Keeping Your Job

(This first appeared in Texas Business Today, 2nd/3rd Quarters 1998 issue. Since then, it has appeared on a lot of company bulletin boards and employee break room walls. The last five are new for 2010.)

1. Be on time, whether it is with showing up for work, returning from breaks, going to meetings, or turning in assignments.


2. Call in if you know you will be tardy or absent. Most companies treat absences or tardiness without notice much more seriously than simple absence or tardiness.


3. Try your best; always finish an assignment, no matter how much you would rather be doing something else. It is always good to have something to show for the time you have spent.


4. Anticipate problems and needs of management - your bosses will be grateful, even if they do not show it.


5. Show a positive attitude - no one wants to be around someone who is a "downer".


6. Avoid backstabbing, office gossip, and spreading rumors - remember, what goes around comes around - joining in the office gossip may seem like the easy thing to do, but almost everyone has much more respect - and trust - for people who do not spread stories around.


7. Follow the rules. The rules are there to give the greatest number of people the best chance of working together well and getting the job done.


8. Look for opportunities to serve customers and help coworkers. Those who would be leaders must learn how to serve.


9. Avoid the impulse to criticize your boss or the company. It is easy to find things wrong with others - it is much harder, but more rewarding, to find constructive ways to deal with problems. Employees who are known for their good attitude and helpful suggestions are the ones most often remembered at performance evaluation and raise review time.


10. Volunteer for training and new assignments. Take a close look at people in your organization who are "moving up" - chances are, they are the ones who have shown themselves in the past to be willing to do undesirable assignments or take on new duties.


11. Avoid criticizing your company, coworkers, or customers online — your digital footprint is permanent and can impact your career.


12. Be a good team member. Constantly focusing on what makes you different from others, instead of how you fit into the company team, makes you look like someone who puts themselves first, instead of the customer, the team, or the company.


13. Try to avoid ever saying "that's not my job". Many, if not most, managers earned their positions by doing work turned down by coworkers who were in the habit of saying that, and they appreciate employees who help get the job done, whatever it is.


14. Show pride in yourself and respect toward others. Never let yourself be heard uttering minority-related slurs or other derogatory terms in reference to yourself or to others. Use of such terms perpetuates undesirable stereotypes and inevitably disturbs others. It also tends to make others doubt your maturity and competence. The best way to get respect is to show respect toward yourself and others.


15. Distinguish yourself. Pick out one or more things in your job to do better than anyone else. Become known as the "go-to" person for such things. That will help managers remember you favorably at times when you really need to be remembered.

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Financial Preparedness from a Survivalist's Perspective

By Tim Gamble

This website, Wealth from Chaos, focuses on creating personal and generational wealth in a highly disruptive world. Part of doing so means being financially prepared for disaster. 

Financial preparedness involves taking steps to ensure that you have the resources and knowledge necessary to manage your finances effectively, both in the short term and long term. This is true during relatively normal times, in severe recessions (such as 2008-2010), in times of major disruptions (2020/21), and even in the midst of any future economic or political collapse.

Here are some key aspects of financial preparedness, from a survivalist's perspective. Starting from zero? Don't let this list overwhelm you. Take small steps consistently and you will get there.

Budgeting / Living Within Your Means

Create a budget to track your income and expenses, ensuring that you are living within your means and allocating funds to essential items like housing, food, and utilities. Living within your means may include reducing your lifestyle, giving up credit cards, and even doing without while you save for major purchases. Don't let your ego or your need for instant gratification get in the way of securing your financial situation and future. 

Emergency Fund

Establish an emergency fund containing enough money to cover at least 3 to 6 months of living expenses (more is always better). This fund can help you weather personal financial crises, such as a job loss, surprise repair bills, or unexpected medical expenses. Keep most of this money in a savings account or CD at a local credit union or small regional bank. Keep a small portion of it in a hidden place at home in case you need it when the banks are closed and ATMs aren't working.

Capital Fund

A capital fund stands separate from your emergency fund, as it is more about building long-term and generational wealth than being prepared for a temporary emergency. However, having a capital fund could be very useful in covering major expenses after a short-term disaster, such as rebuilding your home. Not strictly necessary for financial preparedness, so work on your emergency fund first. 

Eliminating / Avoiding Debt

"The rich rules over the poor, and the borrower is the slave of the lender." --Proverbs 22:7.  

The dangers are debt should be obvious to everyone, but sadly most of us, including me, fall into this trap at some point in our lives. Look for upcoming articles on eliminating debt with debt busting ideas.

Insurance

I learned to value of good insurance last year with my fight against cancer. If I didn't have good insurance, I would have been financially ruined. Yes, insurance is expensive, but you need to figure it out before you need it. Obtain appropriate insurance coverage for your health and other assets, such as homes and cars. Life insurance is also a necessity, particularly if you are the major bread-winner in your family. It won't be easy, but you have to figure it out. 

Risk Mitigation

Identify and assess potential financial risks, such as high inflation, economic downturns, job loss, home fires, and other disasters. Develop strategies to mitigate these risks, such as maintaining an emergency fund, eliminating debt, maintaining and expanding your job skills, constantly updating your resume, maintaining a professional network, diversifying your investments, and having adequate insurance. For preppers and survivalists, your stockpile of food and other supplies is part of this risk mitigation.

Planning for Life Events

Prepare for major life events, such as getting married, buying a home, starting a family, caring for aging parents, or retirement, by setting financial goals and creating a plan to achieve them. This may include reducing your lifestyle or even delaying major purchases while you save money for these events. This does not include maxing out your credit cards. Getting yet another credit card is not a financial plan.  

NOTE: I am working on a "Starting From Zero" guide for those at the beginning of their financial journey. Look for it within the next few weeks

Planning for Retirement

Start saving for retirement as early as possible. Don't rely solely on social security. Take full advantage of employer-sponsored plans like 401(k)s or Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs) by maximizing your contributions. Plan ahead to retire completely debt-free, including your home mortgage. As preppers and survivalists, we must plan for both disasters AND for things remaining relatively normal. Planning for retirement that may be decades away is part of this. 

Financial Education

Continuously educate yourself about personal finance topics, such as investing, tax planning, and estate planning, to make informed decisions and stay ahead of financial trends. Three older but excellent books I recommend are:

• The Millionaire Next Door (Amazon link)
• Rich Dad Poor Dad (Amazon link)
• The Richest Man in Babylon (Amazon link)

All three of those books are fairly easy reads without a lot of jargon, statistics or charts. They are highly motivational with lots of food for thought. Most importantly, they will help you adjust your attitude habits, and thinking in ways that will positively impact your life and finances.  

Investing and Saving

Diversify your savings and investments across various asset classes, such as cash, gold, silver, stocks, bonds, real estate and digital currencies to reduce risk and optimize returns. 

Learn about investing. The classic investment book by Benjamin Graham, The Intelligent Investor, is a must read (Amazon link). 

For a prepper and survivalist, investing should come only after securing your financial foundation of living within you means, eliminating debt, and building an emergency fund. After doing that, then you can start investing part of your excess. Yes, I do think a homestead that provides resources (food, water, wood, income opportunity, etc.) could be legitimately considered an investment. 

What about gold, silver, bitcoin? These are not truly investments for growth, but rather are potential safe storehouses for your wealth, protecting it from the ravages of high inflation and dollar decline. Keeping a part of your savings and even investment money in these assets may make sense, but only after securing your other financial foundations, and should never represent the majority of your wealth. 

Land/real estate could be seen as either an investment or as a storehouse of wealth — or both — depending on a variety of factors, including how you are using it and your future intentions for it. 

Regular Review

Periodically review your financial situation and adjust your strategies as needed to ensure that you remain on track to achieve your financial goals. You circumstances, concerns, and opportunities constantly shift throughout your life, and you financial planning needs to shift with it. 

Want more strategies to outsmart the system and build your legacy? Join my email list by clicking here for exclusive insights, updates, and tools to stay ahead of the curve. Don’t stay in the dark — sign up and start fighting back today!

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Knowledge as Wealth: Harnessing Information for Success and Survival

By Tim Gamble

Join the Wealth From Chaos email list by clicking here.

In a world of chaos, where uncertainty reigns and systems falter, one asset remains timeless: knowledge. Not just any knowledge, but the right kind — practical, actionable, and relevant information that can be wielded like a weapon to secure your family’s success and survival. The Rothschild family, one of history’s most enduring financial dynasties, understood this principle better than most. Their story offers a powerful lesson for us today: in times of crisis, those who master the flow of information hold the keys to wealth and resilience.

The Rothschild Edge: Information as Power

During the Napoleonic Wars, the Rothschild family’s private courier system outpaced even the British military’s. After the Battle of Waterloo in 1815, the Duke of Wellington dispatched his official courier to London with news of Napoleon’s defeat — a message critical to markets, governments, and the future of Europe. Yet, the Rothschilds’ courier arrived a full 24 hours earlier, delivering the same news to their family network. Armed with this information, the Rothschilds acted swiftly, leveraging their knowledge to make strategic financial moves before the rest of the world caught up.  

This wasn’t luck. It was a deliberate system. The Rothschilds invested heavily in a private intelligence network — couriers, informants, and connections — that gave them an edge in a chaotic world. To them, knowledge wasn’t just power; it was money, security, and survival. They understood that staying ahead of the curve, whether in war or markets, required not just access to information but the ability to act on it decisively.

Knowledge in the Modern World

Fast forward to 2025, and the principle remains unchanged. In an era of economic instability, geopolitical tensions, and rapid technological shifts, information is still the ultimate currency. But not all knowledge is created equal. The type and quality of what you know matter just as much as how you use it. Useless knowledge for the sake of useless knowledge is a trap — a distraction that wastes time and resources without advancing your goals.

Take the modern college system, for example. As Cade wrote about in his article “College is a Scam, Not a Success Ticket”, a college degree might feel prestigious, but it’s no longer a ticket to prosperity. Fifty years ago, a college degree was a near-guaranteed path to a stable career. Today, many graduates are saddled with massive debt and degrees that don’t translate into practical skills or marketable expertise. Meanwhile, trades like electrical work, plumbing, welding, and coding — skills grounded in real-world utility — are in high demand and offer paths to financial independence.

Quality Over Quantity: Choosing the Right Knowledge

So, what kind of knowledge is worth pursuing? Here are some principles to guide you:

Practical Skills Trump Academic Prestige

Knowledge that solves real problems — how to fix a generator, grow your own food, or manage a budget — outweighs theoretical expertise in most crises. Electricians keep the lights on; philosophers don’t. Learn skills that make you indispensable, whether in your community or a post-collapse scenario. As I’ve said before, self-reliance is the foundation of survival.

Stay Ahead of the Curve

Like the Rothschilds, you need a system to stay informed. But in today’s information-saturated world, it’s not just about speed—it’s about filtering noise. Curate reliable sources: follow local news for community developments, monitor economic indicators for financial trends, and stay attuned to global events that could ripple into your life. Use tools like RSS feeds, trusted X accounts, or niche newsletters to cut through mainstream media spin.

Actionable Intelligence is Key

Information is only as valuable as your ability to act on it. Knowing a storm is coming is useless if you haven’t stockpiled supplies or secured your home. Knowing markets are crashing is pointless if you haven’t diversified your assets. Build systems—mental, physical, and financial—to turn knowledge into results.

Invest in Lifelong Learning

The world changes fast. What’s valuable today might be obsolete tomorrow. Commit to continuous learning, but focus on what’s relevant. Cybersecurity, for instance, is increasingly critical as digital threats grow. Basic medical training can save lives when help is hours away. Even understanding local regulations can keep you out of trouble in a hyper-regulated world.

Building Your Own Intelligence Network

The Rothschilds had couriers; you have the internet, community networks, and your own curiosity. Here’s how to emulate their strategy in 2025:

Develop Trusted Sources

Identify people and platforms with proven track records. Local farmers, mechanics, or small business owners often have practical insights you won’t find in textbooks. Figure out which news outlets are worthwhile (a very few) and which aren't (most). On X and other social media, follow accounts that focus on survival, preparedness, or economic analysis — but always cross-check their claims. 

Cultivate Community Knowledge

Your neighbors, church group, or local survivalist meetup can be goldmines of information. Share skills and insights. One person’s expertise in gardening complements another’s in mechanics. Together, you’re stronger. Build your tribe — your real-life network.

Master the Art of Discernment

Misinformation is rampant. Learn to spot bias, verify facts, and question narratives. Question authority. Avoid sources that do click-bait or push fear and paranoia.  Focus on what’s verifiable and actionable. 

Act on What You Know

Knowledge without action is just trivia. Opportunity lies in chaos. If you hear of a new regulation impacting your business, adapt before it hits. If you learn about a potential supply chain disruption, stock up early. Follow trends, and act on them. The Rothschilds didn’t just know about Waterloo — they profited from it.

Knowledge as Your Legacy

Ultimately, the knowledge you gather and the systems you build aren’t just for you — they’re for your family’s future. Teach your children how to think critically, solve problems, and seek truth. Pass down practical skills, like how to maintain a vehicle, preserve food, or create a budget. Instill a mindset of curiosity and adaptability. In a chaotic world, this legacy of knowledge is worth more than gold.

The Rothschilds thrived because they treated information as wealth. You can too. Build your intelligence network, prioritize practical knowledge, and act decisively. In doing so, you’ll not only survive the chaos — you’ll turn it into opportunity. 

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