Knowing When to Bug-Out (includes the Bug-Out Equation)

This article isn't about bug-out bags, bug-out locations, or even bug-out vehicles.  This article is about answering the most basic question  "When should I bug-out?" - the answer to which is both very simple and extremely difficult. Let me start off with the following story, then I'll segue into my answer.

Many preppers and survivalists have become fond of saying "If you didn't bug-out on 9-11, you'll never bug-out." Although I understand the sentiment behind the statement, I disagree with it. Despite the horrific events of that day, for most Americans it made little sense to bug-out, as it was obvious they were safe where they were at the time.

Sure, if you lived or worked in New York, Washington, or some big city that would be a likely terrorist target, you should have bugged out. But for most Americans, this wasn't the case. 

On 9-11 I was living and working in a small town in western North Carolina, a couple hours away from the nearest big city. Terrorists seek maximum carnage and maximum publicity.  The chances that a terrorist, even on 9-11, would fly a plane into a building in my particular small town was next to zero. I probably had a higher chance of being struck by lightning on that day. Frankly, this was the case for most Americans.  Bugging out would have been a highly emotional over-reaction, unless you happened to live or work in a big city, like New York or Washington.  

This perfectly illustrates one of the main points of this article. The answer to the question "When should I bug-out?" is an individual one, dependent not only on the big picture of what is happening nationally (terrorist attack, EMP event, economic meltdown, or whatever), but also on the smaller picture of what is actually happening, or is likely to happen, in and near your particular location.

Why You Should Bug-In If Possible 

Bugging out should not be your Plan A, of course. The best advice for most people in most situations is to stay put. Bug-in (hunker down) where you are, unless and until it becomes too dangerous to do so. You don't want to face the open road during a highly chaotic and dangerous time unless you absolutely have to escape greater danger. In most cases, bugging out is a measure of last resort.

There are reasons most folks shouldn't bug-out too early.  Needlessly bugging out will make you feel foolish and it will interfere with your regular life, making you and your family members more reluctant to bug-out next time (when the need might be much greater). Imagine having to explain to your boss that you missed several days of work because you panicked and bugged out over something that turned out to be nothing.  Imagine your already prepper-reluctant wife's reaction to a false bug-out, or you teen children. A premature bug-out can create many problems. 

Besides, bugging out means leaving familiar territory - giving up the home field advantage, so to speak. Most folks know where they live and work better than they will know some remote bug-out location. You know your neighbors, who to trust and who not to trust, better where you live. You know the layout of the land, where resources are located, and where the danger spots are, better where you live now than at some location you maybe visit a couple times a year. Simply put, your local knowledge will be greater where you live than where you'll bug out.  

Also, if you are like most folks, your home is where you keep the bulk of your supplies, most of which you'll have to abandon if you bug-out, as there is going to be limited space in your car or truck. Don't underestimate the home field advantage that your giving up when you bug-out.

When To Bug-Out

But, despite all these reasons to stay, there may come a time when you have to bug out - when staying where you are at becomes just too dangerous. Maybe it is civil unrest, rioters and looters. Or, maybe a wildfire is sweeping your way. Whatever the danger, how do you know its time to bug out?  This is where local knowledge and situational awareness meet to help you make an informed decision.

You will have to decide which is the safer option: staying put or bugging out. In a SHTF situation, both options will have dangers associated with them. And you'll face additional dangers on the road as you travel to bug out location. You'll have to factor those dangers into your calculations, too. Its not just "my bug out location is safer than my home, therefore I will bug out." Your bug out location may be safer, but the route to it may be more dangerous than staying home. In that case, staying may be your best option. Think of this decision process as an equation.

The Bug-Out Equation

If A > B and C, then D
If A < B or C, then E

A = Danger level of staying home (bugging in)
B = Danger level of staying at your bug-out location
C = Danger level of traveling from A to B
D = Bug-Out
E = Bug-In 

A, B, and C are variables that you'll have to decide for yourself, using your local knowledge and situational awareness, which I'll explain below. Those variables will likely change constantly, so you will have to use your knowledge and commonsense to predict those changes in order to avoid bugging out too late.  

Local Knowledge

Local knowledge is your understanding of where you live and work. You should also develop local knowledge of your bug-out location, and of the route you travel between the two.

Local knowledge is more than just knowing the roads, although that is a part of it. You need to know where the bad neighborhoods and high crime areas are, and how to avoid them. You need to know traffic patterns and where congestion is likely to occur. You need to be aware of road and infrastructure construction and how that may effect your route. You need to be aware of alternate routes. You need to know where resources are located - such as gas stations, grocery stores, rest stops, hospitals, camp grounds, and other places you may need. Most importantly, you need to know all these things without having to use GPS, google maps, or other technology that may or may not be available during a SHTF event.

You also need to know people - such as your neighbors where you live and where you'll bug-out. Have an assessment in your mind of how they will likely react during a crisis - will they be friend or foe.  Do you follow the local news, or maybe listen to a local talk radio show? Have you talked to a local cop and asked questions about what areas are problematic when it comes to crime, potential looting, or other dangers? Get to really know your locations. 

Situational Awareness

Situational awareness is simply being aware of what is going on around you. But, situational awareness done right is more than just paying attention to what is going on around you. It means paying attention, knowing what to look for, and how to assess (make decisions about) your surroundings. 

For a full explanation of situational awareness and the OODA Loop (an important part of situational awareness). please see my article on the subject, which has been described as "the best guide to situational awareness available on the Internet" (shameless plug). In this article, I'm just touching on how you would use situational awareness in your decision making process of when to bug-out.

In a national emergency, such as what occurred on 9-11, most folks will likely tune in to cable news to keep up with events. This is probably a mistake, since what you need is an understanding of what is actually happening around you at your present location. As such, I suggest that a local TV station or news/talk radio station is a much better choice. This will give you up-to-the-minute information of what is actually happening around you, not just on the national level. In addition to local news and events, you'll also find out about school & work closings, road construction, traffic conditions, and instructions from state and local officials.

You'll also want to listen to the NOAA weather channel for your area, as well as monitoring local public safety bands (police, fire, etc.) to stay on top of what's going on around you. I consider a good emergency radio and a police/fire scanner to be essential preparedness gear. There are even apps for your smart phone that let you listen in on many local public safety radio bands.

Local Knowledge + Situational Awareness = Informed Decisions

Take your local knowledge (which must be developed prior to any emergency) and add your ongoing situational awareness to it, calmly assigning values to the current danger levels of A, B, and C from the Bug-Out Equation. Constantly update this assessment throughout the crisis to determine when you need to bug-out.  But don't Bug-Out too late. This is where you need the equation and your decision making process to be predictive rather than just reactive.

Being Predictive

In order to not bug-out too late, you need your assessment of the danger levels to not only be current, but predictive. In other words, you need to factor in not only current conditions, but future conditions as well. Local knowledge combined with experience will go a long way towards allowing you to accurately predict how dangerous things will get.  

Hopefully you've been paying attention to how people in your areas react to emergencies and other events. How did things go down around you during the last hurricane? What happened if folks had to evacuate the area? What were the problem traffic areas? What other problems occurred, and where? During times of civil unrest, such as after certain police shootings, were there riots and looting near you? 

Even if nothing has happened in your area, you can glean insights into human behavior watching what goes on in other communities during times of crisis. Combine these insights with your local knowledge to predict what will happen next in your community during a crisis. Predict as best you can when staying where you are at will become more dangerous than bugging out, then bug-out just before it happens. Simple, yet extremely difficult.

The Bottom Line

Bugging out is typically a measure of last resort. Yet, bugging out too late is also unacceptable. Bug-out too early or too late can be disastrous. In order to "thread the needle" between bugging out too early and too late, you need to figure out now how to make that decision. The Bug-Out Equation I present here is one method of thinking through and accomplishing this task.
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Tips to Prevent Type 2 Diabetes

As I've revealed in the past, I am a Type II Diabetic and suffer some vision impairment due to diabetic retinopathy. Needless to say health issues are important to me, especially those related to diabetes.  I've previously posted on the warning signs and risk factors for type 2 diabetes (click here to read it). In this article, I want to give some tips to help prevent type 2 diabetes.

Tips to Help Prevent Type 2 Diabetes

• Eat healthy -This means limiting junk food, fast food, and sweets. Instead eat more veggies, particularly those with a low glycemic load, which is a measure of food's effect on blood sugar. Examples include leafy greens (turnip, mustard, collards, kale, spinach, etc.) and other cruciferous vegetables (broccoli, cauliflower, cabbage, Brussels sprouts, bok choy, etc.). Some other good choices include squash, zucchini, cucumbers, tomatoes, peppers, onions, and various types of lettuces.
• Be careful of the so-called "white foods."  Replace white flour and white bread with whole grains. Replace white rice with brown rice or wild rice. Replace white potatoes with sweet potatoes. Replace refined white sugar with natural sweetness from fruit or honey. Even with these substitutions, be careful of eating too much. Control your portion sizes.
• Don't drink sodas or sweet teas. Drink water or unsweet teas instead. Be careful with fruit juices since they are extremely high in sugar. Again, control your portion size.
• Be mindful of the hidden sugar in many products. Many condiments and salad dressings have surprisingly high amounts of sugar and calories in relatively small serving sizes. Also, I have found many frozen dinners labelled "healthy" actually have more sugar than the average candy bar. Read labels carefully.
• Be physically active. Walk more, sit less. Strive for at least 30 minutes of moderate activity every day (enough to increase your heart rate and make you sweat lightly). Good ideas for exercise include walking, jogging, hiking, biking, swimming, and gardening. Park at the back of the lot so you have to walk farther. At work or the mall, take the stairs instead of an elevator. If you cut grass, use a push mower. If you golf, walk and carry your own clubs. Consider taking up tennis, as many local parks have courts you can use for free.
• If you’re overweight, take the necessary steps to lose the extra weight. Achieving and maintaining a healthy weight is very important.
• Quit smoking and abusing drugs and alcohol.
• Get plenty of sleep - a minimum of seven hours of sound sleep a night, and eight hours would be even better. Several studies have revealed a link between not getting enough sleep and a variety of chronic health conditions, including heart disease, high blood pressure, type 2 diabetes, and even some cancers. 
• Early detection of diabetes or prediabetes is essential. See your doctor for regular checkups. Also see your eye doctor for regular checkups since diabetes can often be caught by an eye exam very early on.

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Of all the books on diabetes I've read, the best and most useful is 60 Ways to Lower Your Blood Sugar by Dennis Pollock. Pollock's book is an aggressive plan to control your blood sugar by bringing together the best of traditional and alternative medicine. What I appreciate about Pollock's approach is that it is based on solid science, even the "alternative" aspects, and is not some hippy-dippy book that rejects medical science (avoid those). Also, I found his ideas easy to follow.

More Anti-Christian Violence in Egypt

The following is an unedited press release from International Christian Concern (ICC), a Christian human rights organization.   You can visit the ICC website at https://www.persecution.org/ for more on Christian persecution around the world.
 

 Isamic Celebration Spirals into Anti-Christian Violence in Egypt

Christians Targeted in Upper Egyptian Village Following Conversion Case 

06/06/2019 Washington D.C. (International Christian Concern) – International Christian Concern (ICC) has learned that on June 5, 2019, anti-Christian mob violence sparked in the Upper Egyptian village of Shosha, located in Minya Governorate. The predominantly Muslim village is home to approximately 50 Christian families, that are currently confined to their homes as the authorities attempt to regain control of the situation.

No injuries are reported, although Christians have noted that some of their homes were stoned. An estimated 40 Muslim men initially gathered in the streets to celebrate the return of Fransa Abdel Sayeed, a Christian woman who disappeared in April. It was later discovered that she had converted to Islam, married a Muslim man, and was pregnant. Her Christian family immediately began facing harassment and intimidation from their new Muslim in-laws, who live across the street.

Initially, police refused Fransa’s petition to return home to the village, citing concerns that it would incite sectarian tension. However, during the celebration of Eid, police allowed Fransa and her husband to return. A group of Muslims gathered to welcome her, and the situation quickly escalated into anti-Christian violence.

Fransa’s Christian brother, Elisa Yusuf, shared with local press his family’s belief that “the police manipulated us. Now, the police encourage and support the Muslim extremists… We live in a state of terror now and the village has become chaotic as a result of the celebration of Fransa.”

He continued, “Copts have not been able to leave their homes. Despite the great presence of security forces in the village, this has not prevented chaos, and (at) the house of my uncle… stones have been thrown and the Copts are crying. The extremists are provoking the Copts so it’s possible to blow up [violent] actions between the Christians and the Muslims of the village.”

A local church leader familiar with the situation further explained to ICC, “At the dawn of Wednesday, the governor of Minya commanded that Fransa must return to the village and there would be a great presence of security forces. He was smart to choose this time. It is a time when all the people are celebrating (Eid).” 

“The police members are relatives to the Muslim extremists, so it is hard and impossible for the police to resist or disagree with them,” he added. “The Muslim husband has many relatives and friends in this village. The Muslims want to humiliate the Copts.” 

The issue of conversion remains highly sensitive in Egypt, where Islam is the official religion. Christians, most of whom are Coptic Orthodox, are often placed under intense pressure to convert to Islam. Christian families with a relative who converted to Islam are especially at risk of violence and harassment.

Claire Evans, ICC’s Regional Manager for the Middle East, said, “Police have known for several months that tension was approaching a breaking point in Shosha. The manner at which they addressed the problem during Eid was the ignition point that has long been boiling. Police should hold the mob accountable for their indiscriminate attacks against Christians. Pray that tensions will soon cease and that the violence will be resolved according to due process of law.”  

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Ways to Imprve Your Health and Fitness for Free!

Health and fitness should be at or near the top of every prepper's list of priorities. The good news is that improving your health and fitness doesn't require expensive gym memberships, personal trainers, special exercise equipment, or high-priced "health foods." Here are some FREE ways to improve your health & fitness:

• Drink water instead of sodas or sweet tea. You don't have to buy bottled water, as tap water works just as well (and the dirty little secret of most bottled waters is that they really are just tap water).
• Skip the desserts. You'll lose weight and save money at the same time.
• Skip the late night snacks. Another way to lose weight and save money at the same time. A general rule of thumb for losing weight is "No snacks after 8pm."
• Eat healthier. This doesn't have to mean buying special health foods or more costly organic foods.  Instead, it means eating less junk foods, fast foods, & sweets, and more veggies, especially leafy-greens and cruciferous vegetables (like broccoli and cauliflower).
• Go for a walk. Walking is great exercise. Start with a 15-minute walk each day, and over the next several weeks try to work your way up to 45-minutes tor even an hour. You can walk around your neighborhood, in your local mall (a great way to walk on a rainy day), or at local parks & greenways. I even know an older couple who walk laps inside their local Walmart most mornings, rain or shine. Everyone has somewhere they can walk for free. Once you start walking, don't quit. The key to walking for fitness is consistency. 
• Be active. Yard work - such as cutting grass with a push mower, gardening, raking leaves, chopping wood - makes great free exercise. In fact, anything that raises your pulse rate and causes you to lightly sweat counts as exercise. 
• Check out your local parks. Local parks often have walking/jogging trails, tennis courts, basketball courts, obstacle/fitness courses, and other opportunities for free exercise. 
• Stretching exercises and calisthenics are free. Jumping jacks, sit-ups, toe-touches, leg squats,  push-ups, etc., require no special equipment and cost nothing. You can also find lots of free You Tube videos with fitness exercises and workout programs.
• Stop smoking. Yes, this is hard. But it can be done for free and it will even save you hundreds, perhaps thousands, of dollars a year. 
• Get plenty of sleep. Sleep is much more important to our long-term health than most people realize. Lack of quality sleep not only impairs our immune system, reflexes, and reasoning skills, but has also been proven to increase our risk for heart disease, high blood pressure, stroke, diabetes, and even certain cancers. We might be able to "get by" with less sleep over the short-term, but we are damaging our health over the long-term.

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