Random Thoughts

My opinion on Jesse Ventura: he has a massive ego, he can be a real jerk, he is wrong on his 9/11 conspiracy theories, but there are a frightening number of other things he is probably right about. I am no conspiracy guy (see my Conspiracy Theory rant), but it seems that each day provides us with more and more reasons to distrust our government, politicians, bureaucrats, and corporations.

************

I don't understand so-called "conservatives" who claim they love the Constitution, yet when it comes to National Security issues, they are perfectly willing to ignore it. Sorry, but we cannot pick-and-choose which parts of the Constitution to obey and which to ignore. If you consider yourself a pro-Constitution Conservative, yet are willing to make exceptions for national security (or other) reasons, then you are neither pro-Constitution nor a conservative.

 ************

"He who sacrifices freedom for security deserves neither." -- Benjamin Franklin

************

On February 14, I wrote a piece for my website using recent headlines to dispute the meme that the economy is getting better. There has already been a change in those headlines, for the worse. Radio Shack previously announced 500 store closings. They have now more than doubled that number, upping the store closings to 1,100.

************

China has announced a new economic growth target of 7.5%. Henry McVey of KKR says closer to 5% is more realistic. Either way, China's economic miracle of 10%+ economic growth for decades is over. Even 5% is good relative to US and Western Europe, but this does mean that China's ability to continue to carry the world's economy on its back is doubtful. However, I still see many talking heads (hedge fund managers, mutual fund managers, corporate executives, etc.) assuring folks that there is no need to worry about markets because China will make up for any weakness elsewhere. When interviewers ask them about China's slowing growth, they typically get back blank stares and a repeat of the previous talking points. In other words, these corporate leaders haven't factored in China's slowing growth, yet are still pushing very optimistic scenarios. #RoseColoredGlasses

************

Please understand that China's slower economic growth does NOT mean the world economy totally collapses next week. But it does mean that current economic woes will continue, and that China's economy will not be able to rescue the rest of the world from the consequences of our excesses.

************

They STILL want to take away our guns. Gun control efforts aren't making the headlines that they were last year, but progressive governors and legislators across the USA haven't given up. They are still working hard to pass gun control legislation, but are simply being sneakier about it, often trying to hide it in with larger bills and/or playing down their efforts in the media. They are hoping We The People will fall back asleep on this issue. The price of freedom is eternal vigilance. 

************

I don't know about you, but I am sick and tired of vegetarians and their smug, holier-than-thou attitudes. News flash: being vegetarian does NOT mean you are eating healthier. It does NOT mean you are more compassionate. It does NOT mean you are special in any way. It just means you don't eat meat. So, get out of my face and let me enjoy my steak.

Tweet

What will an economic collapse (or any other disaster) mean?

A disaster of any type usually will result in the temporary or permanent loss of many of the “comforts of civilization” we are used to enjoying. Comforts of civilization are those things that are provided to us by modern civilization that we tend to take for granted. It would be difficult for most people to provide many of these things for themselves, especially without learning new skills, stockpiling supplies, and preparing well in advance for their loss.

These comforts of civilization we may lose include:

* Readily available running water that is safe to drink.
* Readily available food from stores and restaurants.
* "Just-in-time" delivery of goods of all types.
* “Flush and forget” human waste disposal.
* Modern medicine and health care.
* Readily available electricity for lighting, heating, cooling, cooking and hot water.
* Readily available natural gas for heating, cooking and hot water.
* Readily available liquid fuel for cars, trucks, tractors and planes.
* Instant long distance communication (phones, email, etc.).
* Ready access to education and information.
* Ready access to emergency services such as fire, police, and paramedics.
* Most modern luxuries (television, IPods, computers & the Internet, etc.).
* No access to ATMs, electronic money transfers, POP check authorizations, etc.
* Ability to spend money without having it (credit cards, mortgages, installment plans, etc.).
* Fast and safe long distance travel (no planes, trains, automobiles).

Too often disasters also involve the loss of life, such as the hundreds who died due to Hurricane Katrina, the hundreds of thousands who died due to the 2004 tsunami or the 2010 Haiti earthquake, or the tens of millions who died during the Holocaust & WWII.

Tweet

The Real Government Debt Figure

The real government debt in America, combining Federal, State, and Local debt including unfunded mandates, is over $150 trillion.

Tweet

What do I think is really going to happen?

Anyone who reads this website or follows me on Twitter (@TimGamble) knows that I am a prepper, and am very earnest about it. I often use both this website and my Twitter account to encourage other folks to be preppers, too. But this begs the question: What am I prepping for? What do I really think is going to happen?

After years of research and much thought, I have come to the following conclusions:

1) Economic collapse in the USA, and much of Western Civilization, is guaranteed at this point. It is only a question of exactly when it will occur and exactly how bad things will get.

The modern welfare-state, which is the current western model, is simply unsustainable from an economic point of view. I recently explained to my Twitter followers that the real debt is already too massive to ever be eliminated by more taxes (even when paired with budget cuts) or by economic growth. The real government debt in the USA isn't $17.3 trillion (the "official" on-the-books debt of the Federal government only), but when you add together ALL federal, state, and local government debt, both on-the-books as well as unfunded and underfunded mandates, the real government debt in the USA is well over $150 Trillion. And this figure does not yet include any debt or unfunded mandates arising from Obamacare. Considering that the entire GDP for the United States is only about $16.1 Trillion, we cannot eliminate that debt, even over time, no matter how high we raise taxes or how deep we cut the budget.  And it would require impossibly-high economic growth rates to simply grow our way out of debt. (See usdebtclock.org for a breakdown of these debt figures.)

2) A likely outcome of the economic collapse will be political chaos and civil unrest. In the near term (the next few years), I see the United States becoming a highly-centralized, one-party dictatorship, with little economic and individual freedom, as the government desperately tries to hold things together. In the long-run, I think the USA will likely break-up into many regional states with widely varying styles of government, amounts of freedom, and standards of living.

3) The economic and political turmoil in the United States will ripple throughout the world. Even in its current weakened state, the USA is the world's economic and military superpower. Its fall will create much chaos globally, particularly in Western nations who already have their own debt problems and unsustainable welfare states. Various powers (China, Russia, Iran) and movements (radical Islam, Marxism, and radical-aspects of the environment movement) will rush to fill the power-vacuum. This will lead to am extended period of violent protests, terrorism, and international war.  

4) Regional, and even global, famine and pandemics will become much more likely. During all this turmoil, there will be a breakdown of the supporting infrastructure for food production and distribution, as well as for sanitation and medical-care. There is also the increased possibility that biological warfare could be used by governments or groups, directed either directly at human populations or at our food sources.

A bleak picture? Yes. But it is one that is developing. Check out the debt clock website (I gave the link earlier in this article). Read a couple of old essays of mine (Bread and Circuses, and Chaostan).  These will better explain some of my reasoning. And, of course, I will continue to post more essays on this website. (You can sign up for email updates for this website in the subscription box towards the bottom of the right-hand column.)

Even if you don't believe some major societal disaster is going to happen for which we need to prepare, you should still be a prepper. Why? Small disasters happen all the time - an unexpected job loss, a sudden illness, a house fire, wildfires, earthquakes, hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, and winter storms. Chances are, you've already experienced a few of these in your life, and probably will experience a few more. Be prepared.

Tweet

Twitter Recommendations

Need help seeing through the Matrix? Here are some Twitter accounts I highly recommend. Not all of these folks have figured out the Matrix yet, but they all tweet occasional peeks through Matrix.

@Fer_FAL - Fernando Aguirre has experienced economic collapse (Argentina 1998 - 2002) and the resulting political turmoil first hand. Author of The Modern Survival Manual: Surviving the Economic Collapse, he also has a great YouTube channel.

@DaxtonBrown - Author  of Going Galt and the Futurnamics website (both of which I highly recommend).

@OBAMA_CZAR - Anna is perhaps my favorite follow on Twitter. A very smart promoter of small, limited government, her tweets are well-focused and EPIC!

@LearnLiberty - LearnLiberty.org is a resource for learning about the ideas of a free society.

@DEMCAD - Reginald Kaigler is a libertarian and prepper who has been blogging and making YouTube videos for many years.

@EPA_Abuse - Exposes the truth about the Environmental Protection Agency.

@CFACT - A great organization bringing actual facts and real science to the discussion of environmental issues.

@ClimateDepot - Marc Morano is a great source of news exposing the truth behind much of climate "science."

@BigJoeBastardi - Meteorologist and outspoken skeptic of man-made climate change, Joe Bastardi makes frequent guest appearances in the national media.

@EcoSenseNow - Dr. Patrick Moore is an ecologist and co-founder of Greenpeace (though he is no longer associated with them). Deals with environmental issues with "science and logic, not sensation and fear."

@Climate_con - An Australian who does a great job exposing the climate scam, as well as other scams being perpetrated on a clueless public.

@JunkScience - Steve Milloy takes on the distortion and misuse of science to promote political ideologies.

@N_ata6ha - The MSM is completely ignoring it, but there is a genocide occurring in South Africa under the African National Congress. Natasha is one of the few sources of information on the genocide. She also has a website. WARNING: Natasha does post some EXTREMELY GRAPHIC photos of the violence in South Africa.

@AdrianaStuijt - Adriana also reports on the South African situation. 

@Michael_Yon - An independent war corespondent and author, currently reporting on the ongoing protests in Thailand.

@W7VOA - Steve Herman is a reporter based in Asia, and is a good source of breaking news for that region.

@jamiedupree - I am putting Jamie Dupree on he because he does a good job of covering Congress in as unbiased a way as I've seen from a MSM reporter. Don't expect him to rock the boat, but do expect solid old-fashioned journalism.

@loudobbsnews - Lou Dobbs fashions himself as Mr. Independent, and compared to most other news personaliities today, he does come fairly close. He tends to be very skeptical of the power elite, which is a good thing.

@FBNStossel - John Stossel reports the news from a libertarian and free market perspective.

@laborunionrpt - Reports the uncomfortable truth about today's labor unions.

@canadafreepress - An independent news agency which often covers stories the MSM ignores. Not politically correct, which is a good thing. Also, check out their website.

@LibertarianWing - Grassroots organization that wants to minimize the federal government and maximize civil liberties.

@TheLibRepublic - A free market news magazine from libertarian and conservative perspectives.


@FiveRights - Author and libertarian, Philip Schuyler is an avid promoter of individual rights. Schuyler's book is available on Amazon.com. 

@reason - Reason is the monthly magazine and website of “free minds and free markets.”

@reason247 - Great news feed from the folks at Reason. 

@Judgenap - Judge Napolitano analyzes Constitutional and legal issues from a libertarian point of view.

@FreedomWorks - The thorn in the side of  both Democrats and establishment Republicans. Also check out their website FreedomWorks.org.

@CatoInstitute - Libertarian think-tank that embraces individual liberty, limited government, free markets, and peace. Also check out there website cato.org.

@zerohedge - Zero Hedge is a news website and collection of blogs covering financial and economic news, often from a skeptical and/or contrarian point of view. Their website is zerohedge.com.

@DownsizeTheFeeds - A project of the CATO Institute,they tweet lots of uncomfortable facts about the federal government.

@mises - You need to understand the Austrian school of economics. The folks at the Mises Institute will help you do that.

@JulieBorowski - Julie Borowski does a great job of explaining libertarian ideas. Her YouTube videos are informative and very funny. Watch them. 

@ThePatriotNurse - RN with a BSN, the Patriot Nurse is a Disaster Medicine instructor with a lot of real world experience. She doesn't tweet often, but has an active YouTube channel that I HIGHLY recommend. 

@jihadwatchRS - Robert Spencer runs the Jihad Watch website, exposing the truth about radical Islam. This guy is HATED by the politically correct crowd, which is a great reason to follow him.

@creepingsharia - Another good source on news about radical Islam, jihad, and sharia law. 

@IDFSpokesperson - Official Twitter of the Israeli Defense Forces.

@BlogsofWar - John Little is a good source of breaking news relating to national security issues, terrorism, and the various wars & protests occurring around the world. However, I must also issue this WARNING: Mr. Little is very hawkish and seems to think that liberty and privacy concerns should always come a distinct second to national security and fighting terrorism. Follow him, but with caution.

@JudicialWatch - Watchdog group for the US government, particularly the legal system.

@ACLJ - American Center for Law and Justice is a watchdog group dedicated to protecting Freedom of Religion and Freedom of Seech.

@persecutionnews - News on persecutions against Christians throughout the world.

@PrepperWebsite - Runs PrepperWebsite.com which has tons of links to articles and websites of interest to preppers and survivalists. 

#Preppertalk - Okay, this last one is a hashtag to follow, not an account. Great collection of people talking about preparing for everything from personal disasters (such as job loss or illness) to natural disasters (hurricanes, earthquakes, etc.) to societal disasters (war, economic collapse, etc.).

It is the nature of lists like this one that people who deserve to be own it have certainly been left off. I will be adding new people to this list as I remember or discover them, so please check back from time to time for those updates.

Tweet