Thursday Economic Brief for 11-6-2025

Tim Gamble with Grok (xAI)

Sources listed at bottom. 

This week featured a mix of monetary policy adjustments, escalating trade policy debates, labor market strains amid political disruptions, and corporate earnings highlights. The U.S. economy showed resilience in some indicators (like GDP nowcasts) but faced headwinds from a prolonged government shutdown and tariff uncertainties. Below is a curated rundown of the top stories, grouped by theme.

Monetary Policy and Markets

•  Fed Cuts Rates but Signals Caution: The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75-4%—the lowest since November 2022—in its second cut of the year. Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that further reductions are "far from certain," citing a split vote (one for a larger cut, one against any). The central bank also halted quantitative tightening, stabilizing its $6.6 trillion bond portfolio. Markets reacted positively, with U.S. equities surging and bond yields ticking up slightly. This move aims to support a softening job market amid shutdown-obscured data.
• Stock Rebound Amid Tech Volatility: Major indexes closed higher on November 5 after a mid-week tech rout. AMD jumped on strong Q3 results, while Palantir slipped further on valuation concerns. Broader earnings pointed to a "K-shaped" economy: robust growth in tech and consumer services but weakness in manufacturing and retail. The Shiller PE Ratio hit its highest since 1999, echoing dot-com bubble risks.

Trade and Fiscal Policy

• Supreme Court Hears Tariff Case: On November 5, the U.S. Supreme Court scrutinized President Trump's use of emergency powers for sweeping global tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). Critics argue it oversteps authority, potentially costing consumers billions while frustrating businesses. Trump touted tariffs as a negotiation tool, but justices expressed skepticism. A ruling could reshape trade policy, with IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva warning of prolonged "uncertainty as the new normal" for global growth (forecast at 3% for 2025).
• Government Shutdown Drags on Economy: The ongoing federal shutdown—now over a month—furloughed half of government workers, shaving an estimated 0.1% off GDP weekly. It has delayed key data releases (e.g., BLS reports), forcing reliance on private indicators like ADP payrolls (showing a 32,000-job drop in September). Supply chain delays and import pricing volatility are hitting sectors reliant on federal oversight, though consumer tech demand remains resilient.

Labor and Sector-Specific Trends

• Overall Layoffs: U.S. job cuts rose 55% YTD to 946,426 in the first 9 months, per Challenger survey. DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) accounted for ~1/3. Signals broader slowdown; private sector added jobs but small firms lagged.
• AI-Driven Cuts: 17,375 jobs eliminated due to AI implementation YTD; September alone saw 7,000. However, a Yale study counters that AI hasn't yet disrupted broader labor markets. Mixed: Short-term pain in tech/automation, but long-term adaptation expected.
• Construction & Immigration: Over 25% of workers are foreign-born; recent Hyundai raid highlights labor shortages. Electricity demand surges, pushing prices up. Strains housing and infrastructure; could worsen with policy shifts.
• College Grads: Unemployment rate for recent grads exceeds the national average—unusual and signaling a "not the worst but concerning" job market. Hits entry-level hiring; AI interviews emerging as a double-edged tool (less bias but "creepy").

Global and Corporate Highlights

• U.S.-China Trade Thaw: A tentative "truce" emerged, with China defending free trade at APEC while the U.S. pushes dollar adoption globally. Copper prices fell on China's slowing manufacturing (PMI at 50.6), but U.S. exports rose 3.4% YoY.

     $ Earnings Spotlights:

• Warner Bros. posted losses from linear TV woes but boosted by 'Superman' success; announced sequels for 'Matrix,' 'Practical Magic,' and 'Ocean's 11'.
• Ford and Hyundai saw sharp October EV sales drops; Pfizer sued rivals in obesity drug wars.
• Paramount faces a discrimination lawsuit from a fired exec claiming age/race bias. 

• Broader Data: Q2 GDP grew 3.8% annualized (revised up); current-account deficit narrowed 42.9% to $251.3B. Nonfarm productivity rose 3.3%, but unit labor costs ticked up 1%. Inflation (CPI) accelerated to 3% YoY, the only official glimpse amid shutdown data gaps. Mortgage rates held at 6.1-6.3%; Atlanta Fed GDPNow at ~4% for Q3.

Outlook: Markets eye December Fed moves and post-shutdown data for clarity. Political risks (tariffs, midterms) loom large, but private-sector resilience in AI and services offers a buffer. For investors, focus on diversified plays amid volatility—tech rebounds but tariff-exposed sectors lag.

Next Brief: Thursday, November 13 
Subscribe by email for free by clicking here. 

Sources

Federal Reserve announcements (FOMC statement, Powell press conference)

U.S. Supreme Court docket and live coverage (SCOTUS docket 24-589)

Challenger Gray & Christmas layoff report

ADP National Employment Report (private payrolls)

BLS data gaps confirmed via official notices

Atlanta Fed GDPNow model

Corporate earnings calls (AMD, Palantir, Warner Bros., etc.)

IMF World Economic Outlook update

APEC trade statements

Yale AI labor study (preprint via SSRN)

Shiller PE data via Multpl.com 

 

Skill Stacking: Your Financial Shield in an Age of Chaos

By Tim Gamble We live amid unprecedented upheavals reshaping our world: demographic shifts, mass migration, technocracy's rise, AI automation, and fractured supply chains. These forces are no longer abstract. They are displacing millions of jobs and shattering traditional career paths. Yet chaos breeds opportunity for the prepared. The antidote is skill diversification. You may need to pivot fields, launch a side hustle, or go full entrepreneur. Waiting for the pink slip is too late. Start now: Build a versatile, in-demand toolkit that lets you thrive while others falter.Skills: Your Ultimate Wealth PreserverIn stable times, specialization pays. In chaos, adaptability rules. History proves it. The Great Depression favored practical trades (mechanics, farmers) over white-collar specialists. Today, AI can draft reports or code apps, but it won't fix plumbing or negotiate in Mandarin. Stack skills to boost employability and self-reliance. It's personal insurance against black swans. Bonus: Lifelong learning sharpens the mind. Studies link it to higher satisfaction and resilience.Core Skills to PrioritizeTarget evergreen competencies that span industries. Here's your roadmap: 

1. Business Essentials: Marketing, PR, and Sales
   Why? Every role involves selling—products, ideas, yourself. In the gig economy, self-promotion is essential.
   Action Steps:
   • Take a marketing, advertising, or PR classes at a local community college.
   • Master sales psychology with the business classic SPIN Selling by Neil Rackham (Amazon link).
   • Learn digital basics via free Google Skillshop or HubSpot Academy.
2. Financial Literacy: Accounting, Budgeting, and Bookkeeping
   Why? Money management unlocks power, whether employed or entrepreneurial. Spot opportunities (or scams) in volatile markets.
   Action Steps:
   • Earn QuickBooks certification (pure gold for freelancers and small businesses).
   • Budget with tools like YNAB (You Need A Budget) to build discipline.
   • Learn tax strategies. Home office or side-gig deductions save thousands.
3. Tech and Digital Proficiency
   Why? AI augments jobs; tech-savvy workers will direct the machines.
   Action Steps:
   • Master Microsoft Office or Google Workspace.
   • Read Code by Charles Petzold for hardware basics (Amazon link); The Hundred-Page Machine Learning Book by Andriy Burkov for AI (Amazon link).
   • Code with Python (free on Codecademy) or HTML/CSS.
   • Use no-code tools like Bubble or Zapier.
4. Language Skills for a Globalized World
   Why? Blurring borders make multilingualism a door-opener in trade, service, or remote work.
   Action Steps:
   • Workplace Spanish via Duolingo + local classes.
   • Business Mandarin with HelloChinese. Focus on business phrases (apps like HelloChinese). With China's supply chain dominance, this is a strategic edge.
5. Practical Trades as Backup Plans 
   Why? Blue-collar skills resist recessions and AI (for now). Plumbers and electricians hit six figures with minimal college debt.
   Action Steps:
   • Apprentice as electrician, plumber, welder, or HVAC tech (6-12 month certifications).
   • Learn electronics repair via iFixit YouTube or Adafruit kits.

Making Learning Stick: A Practical FrameworkAvoid becoming overwhelmed with Scott Adams' "Skill Stacking" from How to Fail at Almost Everything and Still Win Big (Amazon link): 

1. Audit Gaps: List your job's vulnerabilities. What automates in 5 years?
2. Set Micro-Goals: 1 hour/day; use the Pomodoro technique (25 min focus, 5 min break).
3. Track Progress: Build a portfolio (GitHub for code, LinkedIn for certifications).
4. Monetize Early: Freelance on Upwork/Fiverr to earn while learning.
5. Network Intentionally: Join local Chamber of Commerce, trade groups, or Reddit communities (e.g., r/learnprogramming).

The Bigger Picture: Skills as SovereigntyIn a technocratic future, governments and corporations control narratives and algorithms. Self-taught skills reclaim agency; you become indispensable. Pair with physical preparedness (see the Dystopian Survival website) for full resilience. Start today: One class, one book, one hour. Chaos looms—meet it with competence. What skills are you building? Share below or subscribe to our email list for more Wealth from Chaos strategies. 

---------------------------

Support Wealth From Chaos: Fuel our mission to uncover truth and empower wealth-building in chaos. Tip us at buymeacoffee.com/CadeShadowlight and keep the fight alive!