ADP vs. BLS Jobs Reports: Decoding the June 2025 Disparity

By Tim Gamble (with an assist by Grok, created by xAI)

The labor market is a chaotic beast, and two key reports — the ADP National Employment Report and the U.S. Department of Labor’s Employment Situation Report — often paint conflicting pictures. In June 2025, ADP reported a loss of 33,000 private-sector jobs, while the BLS announced a gain of 147,000 total nonfarm jobs. Why the stark difference? Understanding these reports is critical for investors navigating economic uncertainty. Here’s a breakdown of their differences and what drove the June 2025 divergence.

Why the Numbers Clash

The ADP and BLS reports measure employment differently, leading to frequent disparities. Here’s how they differ:

ADP:

• Uses real-time payroll data from 25 million employees across 460,000 businesses using ADP’s services, covering only private-sector jobs.
• Excludes government jobs, gig workers, and small businesses not using ADP. It focuses on private-sector trends.
• Aggregates actual payroll transactions, offering a granular, high-frequency snapshot but limited to ADP’s client base.

BLS:

• Relies on surveys, with the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey sampling 119,000 businesses and government agencies, including public-sector jobs.
• Captures both private (74,000 jobs added in June 2025) and government jobs (73,000 added, driven by state and local hiring).
• Uses sample-based surveys, adjusts for seasonality, and revises data over time, which can lead to initial inaccuracies.

What Happened in June 2025?

The ADP’s reported loss of 33,000 jobs contrasted sharply with the BLS’s gain of 147,000. Key factors explain this:

• The BLS reported 73,000 new government jobs, particularly in education, which ADP doesn’t track, accounting for much of the total gain.
• ADP showed losses in professional services (-56,000) and healthcare/education (-52,000), while BLS reported gains in healthcare (+39,000) and construction (+15,000).
• ADP noted hiring hesitancy due to uncertainty, possibly tied to policy changes like tariffs. BLS’s broader sample suggested resilience.
• ADP’s data reflects its client base, which may underrepresent small businesses, while BLS’s survey-based approach can overestimate initially but is revised later.

Takeaways for Investors

The ADP report offers a timely, private-sector pulse, while the BLS provides a comprehensive view, including unemployment (4.1% in June 2025) and government jobs at all levels. Their frequent divergence highlights the labor market’s complexity. For clarity, cross-reference with indicators like jobless claims or JOLTS data. In June 2025, the BLS suggests a cooling but robust market, while ADP flags caution in private hiring. Use both to navigate the chaos and inform your wealth-building strategy.

Takeaways for Workers

For workers, these reports highlight a solid but perhaps softening jobs market, particularly in certain areas (federal government, professional services, middle management). On the other hand, state and local governments appear to be hiring, as well as the healthcare, construction, and AI/coding-related sectors. Best recommendations for workers is to stay informed, upskill, and prepare for uncertainty.

Related Articles

• The 15 Commandments of Keeping Your Job
• You're Fired. Now What?

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You're Fired. Now What?

By Tim Gamble
You’ve been laid off, downsized, restructured, or “let go.” It hurts, especially in today’s shaky economy, with job losses like the 33,000 reported by ADP in June 2025. But you can bounce back. Here’s how to find your next job, even in chaos.
1. Work Your Network
Most jobs come through personal connections, not job boards. Email or call friends, family, former colleagues, and industry contacts. Update your LinkedIn profile and ask, “Know anyone hiring?” Don’t hide your job loss — openness sparks opportunities.
2. Balance Online and Offline Tools
Use Indeed or LinkedIn, but don’t let them consume you. Optimize your profiles with industry keywords, but prioritize networking events or local meetups to build real connections.
3. Tap Into Resources
Check CareerOneStop, sponsored by the U.S. Dept. of Labor, for job fairs or retraining programs. Community colleges offer low-cost courses, resume help, and skills assessments for all. If you’re a college grad, your alma mater’s career office can connect you to alumni job boards.
4. Stay Flexible and Resilient
Take temp or part-time work to stay afloat (check state rules on unemployment benefits). Don’t hold out for the perfect job; a stepping stone now keeps you moving forward. Explore trades; programs like mikeroweWORKS highlight shortages in skilled trades. 
5. Keep Going
Losing a job isn’t the end. Update your resume, reach out to one contact, or explore a new skill today. What’s your next step? Share your job-hunting tips in the comments!
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The 15 Commandments of Keeping Your Job

By Tim Gamble

News hit this week indicating that the job market is softening faster than expected, with ADP's National Employment Report showing a decline of 33,000 jobs in June. Additionally, Microsoft revealed plans to lay off 9,000 employees, which is not part of the ADP report. In times of economic uncertainty, securing your position means standing out as a reliable, adaptable employee. Here’s how to do it.

The following is from the website of the Texas Workforce Commission, with minor edits to remove dead links and update the online activities commandment (#11):

The 15 Commandments of Keeping Your Job

(This first appeared in Texas Business Today, 2nd/3rd Quarters 1998 issue. Since then, it has appeared on a lot of company bulletin boards and employee break room walls. The last five are new for 2010.)

1. Be on time, whether it is with showing up for work, returning from breaks, going to meetings, or turning in assignments.


2. Call in if you know you will be tardy or absent. Most companies treat absences or tardiness without notice much more seriously than simple absence or tardiness.


3. Try your best; always finish an assignment, no matter how much you would rather be doing something else. It is always good to have something to show for the time you have spent.


4. Anticipate problems and needs of management - your bosses will be grateful, even if they do not show it.


5. Show a positive attitude - no one wants to be around someone who is a "downer".


6. Avoid backstabbing, office gossip, and spreading rumors - remember, what goes around comes around - joining in the office gossip may seem like the easy thing to do, but almost everyone has much more respect - and trust - for people who do not spread stories around.


7. Follow the rules. The rules are there to give the greatest number of people the best chance of working together well and getting the job done.


8. Look for opportunities to serve customers and help coworkers. Those who would be leaders must learn how to serve.


9. Avoid the impulse to criticize your boss or the company. It is easy to find things wrong with others - it is much harder, but more rewarding, to find constructive ways to deal with problems. Employees who are known for their good attitude and helpful suggestions are the ones most often remembered at performance evaluation and raise review time.


10. Volunteer for training and new assignments. Take a close look at people in your organization who are "moving up" - chances are, they are the ones who have shown themselves in the past to be willing to do undesirable assignments or take on new duties.


11. Avoid criticizing your company, coworkers, or customers online — your digital footprint is permanent and can impact your career.


12. Be a good team member. Constantly focusing on what makes you different from others, instead of how you fit into the company team, makes you look like someone who puts themselves first, instead of the customer, the team, or the company.


13. Try to avoid ever saying "that's not my job". Many, if not most, managers earned their positions by doing work turned down by coworkers who were in the habit of saying that, and they appreciate employees who help get the job done, whatever it is.


14. Show pride in yourself and respect toward others. Never let yourself be heard uttering minority-related slurs or other derogatory terms in reference to yourself or to others. Use of such terms perpetuates undesirable stereotypes and inevitably disturbs others. It also tends to make others doubt your maturity and competence. The best way to get respect is to show respect toward yourself and others.


15. Distinguish yourself. Pick out one or more things in your job to do better than anyone else. Become known as the "go-to" person for such things. That will help managers remember you favorably at times when you really need to be remembered.

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